Infotheque Network

Economist Nouriel Roubini who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, tore down the "green shoots" theory that a rebound is imminent, saying there was a significant risk of a "double-dip" recession where the economy expands slightly only to begin contracting again.
There is no real need to discuss the statements made in regards the economy and the publisher here thinks also that at a slow pace the message arrived with the "established elite" at Baja - there is a slight time delay yet predictions made and that proof to be true in the rest of the economic world also arrive at Baja. Just take a day or 2 and drive around. How many of the highly hailed "luxury developments" in the world are on hold or progress at a very slow pace?? How come?? If the crisis has no impact here at Baja and the economic drifts that do touch about almost every person one way or the other don't apply to Baja California why is there struggle??

The U.S. economy appears destined for several years of weak growth and high unemployment that leave it vulnerable to a recession relapse after the massive dose of government stimulus wears off. While tepid growth looks likely to resume late this year and build modestly into 2010, the credit bust has left households and businesses unable or unwilling to borrow and spend as freely as they did before the crisis.

Jeffrey Rosenberg, head of global credit strategy at Banc of America Securities Merrill Lynch in New York. thinks the U.S. economy may trudge along at a sluggish growth rate somewhere in the range of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent while banks recover from the credit crisis, which could take another three years. "If that's what you're able to generate, that economy is not generating the job growth required to bring the unemployment rate down," Rosenberg said. This is a much darker outlook than the one put forward by President Barack Obama's administration in its latest budget projections, which show economic growth bouncing back to 3.2 percent next year and hitting 4.6 percent by 2012.

The gloomier scenario assumes that banks take years to recover from losses that some economists think could reach $4 trillion; consumers curb borrowing and spending as they repair the $11.2 trillion hole blown through their savings last year; and the explosion in government debt drives up interest rates. If the forecast proves accurate, it would leave the economy susceptible to a shock, such as a big jump in oil prices, and could force the United States to issue even more debt than investors expect. That would likely increase borrowing costs, both for the government and the private sector.

read the whole report at Reuters